2024’s Crypto and Travel Rule Predictions: What 21 Got Right
Throughout 2023, we still noted the need for regulatory clarity and enhanced security measures in many jurisdictions, along with the steady growth of many cryptocurrencies, predominantly bitcoin. Using these trends, we made our predictions for 2024.
Below, we summarise these predictions, along with what we got right.
Read 2024’s Top 5 Crypto and Travel Rule Predictions
21’s Prediction: Stablecoin and NFT Regulatory Clarity from the FATF
Based on the ongoing global regulatory developments and Travel Rule implementation, we predicted that the FATF would provide additional clarity and further guidance on how regions should regulate stablecoins and NFTs due to the associated risks.
In addition, as some regions, like the EU, had provided clear definitions, we expected the FATF to follow suit and offer the much-needed clarity. As stated in their 2023 Targeted Update on Implementation of the FATF Standards on Virtual Assets/VASPs, the FATF noted that stablecoins and NFTs will be studied further and monitored to establish a way forward.
What 21 Got Right
Unfortunately, this prediction dashed our hopes. In the FATF’s 2024 Targeted Update on Implementation of the FATF Standards on Virtual Assets and Virtual Asset Service Providers, the FATF explained that they would continue to monitor emerging risks like stablecoins and NFTs and suggested that jurisdictions take the same approach.
The FATF suggested that jurisdictions monitor the risks associated with stablecoins and NFTs and share their experiences, including data collection and risk mitigation. They further extended their instruction to the private sector, advising it to ensure appropriate risk identification and mitigation measures are in place.
Read 2024 FATF Targeted Update Summarised with Recommendations
21’s Prediction: Enhanced Security Measures and Privacy Features
With the crypto losses of 2023 (amounting to USD 12 billion), we predicted a heightened focus on cybersecurity measures over the next year.
What 21 Got Right
2024 has seen an increase in regulations and frameworks centred around enhanced security of systems and mitigation of cyber threats. For example, the EU's Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA*) was introduced to address these concerns.
DORA establishes stringent cybersecurity and operational resilience requirements for financial entities, including those in the crypto domain. By emphasising end-to-end security, incident reporting, and robust risk management, DORA supports a more secure ecosystem, complementing efforts like Travel Rule compliance.
*DORA is not a new regulation; it was drafted in 2020. However, with the upcoming implementation of the TFR and MiCA, it has received more attention than in the past.
Read What Is the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA)?
21’s Prediction: Increase in Bitcoin Ownership and Adoption
We predicted a surge in bitcoin ownership and adoption based on growing regulatory frameworks and bitcoin-pro politicians.
What 21 Got Right
While we did not see an increase in the adoption of bitcoin as local currency, there was a definite increase in ownership and bitcoin mining.
Throughout 2024, bitcoin’s value grew exponentially, thus attracting more investors.
Regarding mining, Russia is taking significant steps to formalise and expand its bitcoin mining industry. We anticipate the increase in mining due to the significant growth in Russia’s cryptocurrency economy—in 2023, Russia produced approximately 54,000 bitcoins, valued at over USD 3 billion. This substantial growth is partly due to the recent legalisation and regulation of crypto mining.
21’s Prediction: An Overall Increase in Crypto ETFs
We predicted that in 2024, bitcoin ETFs would dominate the ETF market (after being approved) and secure approximately 1% of the $7.2 trillion US ETF market, equivalent to $72 billion, within the next five years.
What 21 Got Right
In January, bitcoin ETFs were approved, providing traditional investors with a regulated bitcoin option. Moreover, it has been confirmed that bitcoin ETFs have over USD 50 billion in assets since their launch.
21’s Prediction: The Return of the Crypto Millionaire
2024 has been a phenomenal year for bitcoin. The digital asset reached its all-time high, and experts say it isn’t going to stop growing anytime soon.
Bitcoin’s 2024 trajectory has only increased its status as an asset worth investing in.
What 21 Got Right
From January to December 2024, the price of Bitcoin has grown by over 120%, and with that, so have its owners' wallets. CNBC reports that the number of new bitcoin millionaires has doubled to 85,400 in 2024, with 5 bitcoin billionaires.
Don’t let 2025 take you by surprise; read or upcoming blog: 2025’s Top 5 Crypto and Travel Rule Predictions. Or reach out to us; we would be happy to assist you on your journey to compliance.
